Republicans Lead California Governor Race 2026 as Democrats Split Into Crowded Field
A political earthquake is rumbling through California. For the first time in decades, Republicans are polling competitively in the California governor race 2026—not because the state turned red, but because Democrats can’t agree on a candidate.
With over a dozen Democrats now running and primary filing opening February 9, the math is getting dangerous for the party that dominates the nation’s most populous state.
Republicans Could Advance With Historic Low Vote Share
Under California’s top-two primary system, the two highest vote-getters advance to November regardless of party affiliation. That creates a stunning possibility: Republicans could finish first and second in the June 2 primary with as little as 10-15% of the vote each.
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Fox News contributor Steve Hilton are currently polling in double digits alongside Democrat Katie Porter, according to a recent UC Berkeley survey. No other Democrat has broken through.
“The field is not considered of a quality that you as a Democrat would expect in California,” former Assembly Speaker Willie Brown told Politico. “We don’t have any candidates like that at the moment.”
High-Profile Democrats Declined to Run
The Democratic vacuum stems from a series of shocking passes by the party’s biggest names.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris declined to run. So did Senator Alex Padilla. Attorney General Rob Bonta announced Sunday he won’t seek the governorship, choosing instead to run for reelection.
Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis and former state Senator Toni Atkins also opted out.
Their absence left no natural frontrunner to consolidate Democratic support—a rare situation in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly two to one.
The Democratic Field Keeps Growing
At least 13 Democrats have entered the California governor race 2026, with more considering jumping in.
The current field includes:
- Katie Porter – Former congresswoman leading polls with barely double-digit support
- Tom Steyer – Billionaire activist spending heavily on TV ads
- Xavier Becerra – Former Biden cabinet member and state attorney general
- Eric Swalwell – Congressman who recently entered
- Antonio Villaraigosa – Former Los Angeles mayor
- Tony Thurmond – State Superintendent of Public Instruction
- Betty Yee – Former state controller
San José Mayor Matt Mahan is still deciding whether to enter. Los Angeles businessman Rick Caruso hasn’t ruled out a run.
Why the Crowded Field Matters
Every additional Democrat dilutes the vote share. With 13 candidates splitting roughly 60% of California’s electorate, simple math shows each Democrat averaging around 4-5% support.
Meanwhile, just two Republicans are splitting the GOP’s 25% base—giving each potentially 12-13% of the total vote.
A December poll from the Public Policy Institute of California showed Porter leading with Becerra and Hilton tied for second place. That survey was conducted before Swalwell and Steyer entered, further fragmenting Democratic support.
“At some point, perhaps around February or March, when the Democratic field finally begins to shrink, it will be possible to sort out the truly viable candidates,” CalMatters columnist Dan Walters wrote this week.
What Happens If Two Republicans Advance
Political analysts consider an actual Republican victory in November extremely unlikely given California’s Democratic voter registration advantage. But advancing two Republicans to the general election would be unprecedented and embarrassing for the state party.
It would also eliminate any Democrat from California’s top job for the first time since 2011, when Jerry Brown returned to office.
Governor Gavin Newsom, who cannot run due to term limits, remains relatively popular with 56% approval among likely voters. That creates an awkward dynamic: voters like the current Democratic governor but want change.
Billionaire Tax Fight Complicates Race
Democratic candidates face another challenge: taking positions on a controversial labor-backed ballot measure to impose a one-time tax on California billionaires.
Newsom strongly opposes the measure, which aims to fill healthcare funding cuts from the Trump administration. But progressive labor groups—key Democratic allies—are pushing hard for it.
Some California billionaires have publicly discussed leaving the state if the measure passes. National Republicans are watching gleefully.
So far, no gubernatorial candidate has taken a firm stance, though Steyer and Thurmond have signaled openness to the concept.
Congressional Races Add to Political Drama
California’s political landscape is shifting beyond the governor’s mansion. Proposition 50, passed in November, redrew congressional districts to favor Democrats in their quest to retake the House.
This week, a federal appeals court upheld the redistricting, rejecting Republican claims of illegal gerrymandering. The state GOP plans to appeal to the Supreme Court.
The sudden death of Republican Congressman Doug LaMalfa last week further complicated matters. His North State district was significantly redrawn to include liberal Sonoma County, making it difficult for Republicans to hold even with a well-known incumbent.
Assemblyman James Gallagher said Wednesday he’ll run in the special election to fill LaMalfa’s remaining months but hasn’t committed to running for the redrawn seat.
Trump Funding Cuts Loom Over State Politics
California’s political battles are playing out against escalating tensions with the Trump administration.
Trump announced plans to cut all federal funding to sanctuary jurisdictions—including California—starting February 1. The state has maintained sanctuary policies protecting undocumented immigrants from federal immigration enforcement.
Last week’s fatal shooting by an ICE officer in Minneapolis has California officials warning they’ll prosecute federal agents who break state laws during immigration raids.
The Supreme Court blocked Trump’s attempt to deploy National Guard troops to Los Angeles, forcing their withdrawal after months of deployment.
Key Dates for California Governor Race 2026
February 9 – March 6: Candidate filing period
June 2: Primary election (top two advance)
November 3: General election
Democratic Party leaders have roughly three months to thin their field before voters start paying close attention. Whether they can consolidate around a frontrunner—or whether Republicans make history—will define California politics for the next decade.
