Oakland Mayor Barbara Lee Claims Crime is Dropping—What Do the Numbers Really Show?

Six months into her tenure as Oakland’s mayor, Barbara Lee is confronting one of the city’s most pressing challenges head-on: the perception and reality of crime. In recent statements, Mayor Lee has pushed back against what she describes as a “narrative of lawlessness,” asserting that crime is decreasing and public safety is improving under her administration.

The claims come at a critical time for Oakland, a city that has struggled with rising crime rates in recent years, prompting businesses to close, residents to leave, and national media attention to focus on public safety concerns. Mayor Lee’s assertions raise important questions: What does the data actually show? How significant are the improvements? And what policies are driving any changes?

This article examines Mayor Lee’s statements, the available crime data, the broader context of Oakland’s public safety challenges, and what residents and stakeholders need to know about the city’s trajectory.

Mayor Lee’s Claims: Crime is Decreasing

Mayor Barbara Lee, who took office in January 2025 after a long career in Congress representing California’s 12th Congressional District, has made public safety a centerpiece of her mayoral agenda. In her recent statements, Lee emphasized that Oakland is seeing measurable improvements in crime rates and that the “narrative of lawlessness” does not reflect current trends.

While specific statistics cited by the mayor were not detailed in initial reports, her claims suggest that key crime categories—potentially including violent crime, property crime, or both—have shown declines during the first half of 2025.

Context: Oakland’s Crime History

To understand the significance of Mayor Lee’s claims, it’s essential to examine Oakland’s recent crime history. The city experienced notable increases in certain crime categories in the years leading up to 2025:

• Homicides reached concerning levels in 2021 and 2022, though they began declining in 2023 and 2024
• Auto theft and burglaries became persistent problems, affecting both residents and businesses
• Retail crime led several high-profile businesses to close locations or reduce hours
• Highway robberies and carjackings generated significant media attention and public concern

These trends contributed to Oakland’s reputation for crime problems and sparked debates about policing strategies, prosecution policies, and resource allocation.

Examining the Data: What Are the Actual Trends?

To properly evaluate Mayor Lee’s claims, we need to look at multiple data sources and crime categories:

Violent Crime

Violent crime encompasses homicides, aggravated assaults, robberies, and sexual assaults. Many cities, including Oakland, saw violent crime spike during the pandemic years before beginning to decline in 2023-2024. If Oakland is continuing this downward trend in 2025, that would represent a significant positive development.

Property Crime

Property crimes—including burglary, larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft, and arson—have been particularly problematic in Oakland. Auto theft, in particular, became a crisis that affected thousands of residents and visitors. Any measurable decline in these categories would be welcome news for residents and businesses.

Comparison to Previous Years

The most meaningful way to assess Mayor Lee’s claims is to compare current 2025 data to:

• The same period in 2024
• Pre-pandemic levels (2019)
• Peak crime years (2021-2022)

Without access to the specific data Mayor Lee is citing, it’s difficult to determine whether the improvements represent a continuation of existing trends or a new trajectory under her administration.

The “Narrative of Lawlessness”: Perception vs. Reality

Mayor Lee’s use of the phrase “narrative of lawlessness” is significant. It suggests she believes public perception of Oakland’s crime problem may be worse than the actual situation warrants.

Why Perception Matters

Public perception of crime affects:

• Economic development: Businesses make location decisions based partly on safety perceptions
• Resident retention: Families may choose to leave cities they perceive as unsafe
• Tourism and commerce: Visitors may avoid areas with reputations for crime
• Political pressure: Elected officials face demands for action based on public concern

Media Coverage and Crime

Oakland has received substantial national media attention for high-profile crimes, including:

• Viral videos of retail theft
• Stories about businesses closing due to crime
• Reports on highway robberies

This coverage, while often based on real incidents, can create an impression that crime is more pervasive than statistics might indicate. However, it’s also true that crime statistics don’t capture the full impact of lawlessness on quality of life—residents’ daily experiences, feelings of safety, and ability to enjoy their community matter beyond what’s reflected in crime reports.

Policy Approaches: What’s Working?

If crime is indeed decreasing in Oakland, what factors might be contributing to the improvement?

Policing Strategies

Oakland has experimented with various policing approaches, including:

• Targeted enforcement in high-crime areas
• Community policing initiatives
• Technology-enhanced crime prevention
• Increased police presence in commercial districts

The effectiveness of these strategies depends on adequate staffing, community cooperation, and consistent implementation.

Prosecution and Accountability

Alameda County’s approach to prosecution has been a subject of debate, with some arguing that lenient policies have contributed to crime problems. Any shift toward more consistent prosecution of property crimes and violent offenses could contribute to deterrence effects.

Community Programs

Violence intervention programs, youth services, and economic opportunity initiatives may also play roles in longer-term crime reduction, though their effects are typically measured over years rather than months.

Challenges Ahead

Even if Oakland is experiencing crime reductions, significant challenges remain:

Police Staffing

Oakland has faced ongoing challenges recruiting and retaining police officers. Adequate staffing is essential for maintaining any crime reductions and responding effectively to incidents.

Regional Coordination

Crime doesn’t respect city boundaries. Effective public safety requires coordination with neighboring jurisdictions, county agencies, and state law enforcement.

Sustaining Improvements

Short-term crime reductions don’t always translate to sustained improvements. Oakland will need consistent policies, adequate resources, and community engagement to maintain any positive trends.

Addressing Root Causes

While law enforcement is essential for immediate public safety, longer-term crime reduction requires addressing underlying issues like poverty, education, mental health, and substance abuse.

What Residents Need to Know

For Oakland residents trying to understand their city’s public safety situation:

1. Seek specific data: Ask for detailed crime statistics broken down by category, neighborhood, and time period
2. Compare to context: Understand how Oakland’s trends compare to other California cities and national patterns
3. Trust your experience: Statistics matter, but so does your daily experience of safety in your neighborhood
4. Stay engaged: Attend community meetings, communicate with local officials, and participate in neighborhood safety efforts

Conclusion

Mayor Barbara Lee’s assertion that crime is decreasing in Oakland is an encouraging claim that warrants careful examination. If supported by comprehensive data, it would represent important progress for a city that has struggled with public safety challenges in recent years.

However, one data point—six months of potential improvement—doesn’t erase years of concern or guarantee sustained progress. Oakland residents, businesses, and stakeholders need transparency about what the data actually shows, what policies are driving any improvements, and what plans are in place to sustain positive trends.

The “narrative of lawlessness” Mayor Lee references is rooted in real experiences and legitimate concerns. Changing that narrative will require not just improved statistics, but tangible changes in residents’ daily lives—the ability to feel safe in their neighborhoods, to leave their cars without fear of theft, and to build businesses without being victimized by crime.

Oakland’s path forward depends on honest assessment of both progress and remaining challenges, evidence-based policies, adequate resources for public safety, and sustained commitment from leadership and community members alike.

Call to Action

Stay informed about Oakland’s public safety: Follow local news sources for updated crime statistics and policy developments. Attend Oakland City Council meetings where public safety is discussed. Contact Mayor Lee’s office to request detailed crime data and ask questions about specific policies. Share this article with others interested in Oakland’s future, and engage in constructive dialogue about evidence-based approaches to public safety. The more informed and engaged Oakland residents are, the better equipped the city will be to address its challenges and build on any progress.

Note: This article presents available information as of November 30, 2025. For the most current crime statistics, consult the Oakland Police Department’s public data portal and official city reports.