CARB’s May 2026 Vote Could Add $1 Per Gallon to California Gas Prices — Here’s What You Need to Know

Californians are already paying the highest gas prices in the nation. Now, an appointed regulatory board is preparing to vote on rules that could add up to a dollar more per gallon — and most voters have never even heard of it.

Most Californians have no idea who sets the price they pay every time they fill up their tank. It isn’t OPEC. It isn’t their local gas station. It isn’t even the governor — though he plays his part. The real power over what you pay at the pump belongs to a 16-member appointed board called the California Air Resources Board, better known as CARB.

Nobody voted for them. Nobody can vote them out. And on May 28, 2026, they are scheduled to vote on sweeping changes to the state’s Cap-and-Invest program that analysts warn could add up to a dollar per gallon to gas prices by 2030 — on top of costs that already leave California drivers paying roughly $1.66 more per gallon than the rest of America.

Who Is CARB — and Why Should You Care?

CARB was established in 1967 and has since evolved into one of the most powerful unelected regulatory bodies in the country. Its board members are appointed by the governor, confirmed by the state Senate, and largely insulated from direct public accountability. They set fuel standards, emissions rules, and compliance mandates that ripple through every sector of California’s economy.

The agency currently oversees two major programs that directly affect pump prices: the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), which requires fuel providers to meet specific “carbon intensity” targets, and the Cap-and-Invest program, formerly known as Cap-and-Trade. That second program alone currently adds roughly 24 cents to every gallon of gas sold in California.

CARB is now proposing to dramatically tighten the Cap-and-Invest rules — removing an estimated 118.3 million metric tons of carbon allowances from the market between 2027 and 2030 — a move that would force refineries to absorb billions in new compliance costs or simply shut down.

The Real Cost of Regulatory Overreach

The numbers are not in dispute. California’s average gas price stood at $5.16 per gallon as of early March 2026, already the highest in the nation by a considerable margin. Analysts project that CARB’s proposed changes, combined with ongoing refinery closures, could push prices to somewhere between $5.50 and $8.44 per gallon by the end of 2026 — depending on how multiple pressures converge.

Two major refineries have already announced closures: Phillips 66’s Wilmington facility shut down in late 2025, and Valero’s Benicia plant was set to idle in April 2026. Together, these closures eliminate roughly 18 to 21 percent of California’s in-state refining capacity.

When you destroy the supply and raise the compliance cost simultaneously, working families pay the price — every single day.

Marathon Petroleum has warned that California refineries are already among the most expensive to operate in the world. The proposed CARB rules, a company vice president stated, “would further widen the cost disparity, forcing refineries to reconsider whether operations in California remain viable.” If they leave, California will be entirely dependent on importing fuel from out-of-state and overseas refineries — with no guarantee of stable prices or supply.

The Ripple Effect on Families and Communities

This isn’t an abstract policy debate. For millions of working Californians — particularly those in rural areas, the Central Valley, and lower-income communities — gas is not a luxury. It’s the cost of getting to work, taking children to school, and reaching a doctor’s appointment.

California’s gas excise tax already rose to 61.2 cents per gallon as of July 1, 2025. Layer the LCFS costs on top of that, then add the tightened Cap-and-Invest compliance charges, and you have a structure that functions as a regressive tax — one that hits the poorest households hardest while insulating wealthier residents who can afford electric vehicles.

The impact extends beyond California’s borders. Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo wrote directly to the Newsom administration urging it to “carefully evaluate the regional consequences” before finalizing the new rules, noting his state’s deep dependency on California’s refining output. Closure of additional refineries could also eliminate an estimated 536,000 jobs tied to California’s petroleum industry statewide.

Even Democrats Are Sounding the Alarm

Perhaps the most telling sign that CARB has gone too far is who is pushing back. It isn’t just Republicans or oil executives. Fifteen Democratic state Assembly members — the same lawmakers who voted to reauthorize the Cap-and-Invest program just months earlier — have now sent a formal letter urging CARB to pause and rethink the proposed amendments.

“This crisis is not a fallacy nor a thinly veiled threat,” they wrote. “It is a reality borne by consumers today, who are historically and empirically least able to afford it. California’s climate leadership cannot come at the cost of destabilizing our energy markets and burdening those least able to bear it.”

That is a remarkable statement from members of the majority party. It suggests that even within Sacramento, there is growing recognition that regulatory ambition without economic accountability is not leadership — it’s recklessness.

Republican State Senator Brian Jones has gone further, requesting a formal audit of CARB to determine whether the agency is accurately estimating the economic impact of its decisions and meeting legal transparency requirements. “Californians can’t afford $8.43 a gallon gasoline,” Jones stated plainly.

What CARB and Its Supporters Get Wrong

CARB defends the proposed changes as essential to meeting California’s legally mandated greenhouse gas reduction targets and argues that the Cap-and-Invest program is the most cost-effective tool available. A CARB spokesperson has pushed back on higher-end price estimates, suggesting that independent analysts project far smaller cost pass-throughs — as low as 5 to 8 cents per gallon.

Environmental groups add that oil companies are strategically inflating fear about costs to protect profits and slow the transition to cleaner fuels. “The oil industry is trying to slow our transition to cheaper, cleaner energy in order to protect its billions of dollars in profit,” the Environmental Defense Fund argued.

These arguments deserve a fair hearing. Climate change is real, and California has made legally binding commitments to reduce emissions. Market-based approaches like cap-and-invest are, in principle, more efficient than direct mandates.

But principle doesn’t pay for a fill-up. The issue is not whether California should have climate goals — it’s whether an unelected board should be empowered to impose costs of this magnitude on the public without the accountability of the ballot box, transparent economic modeling, or meaningful legislative check. When CARB’s own staff acknowledged at a public hearing that they could no longer accurately estimate the price impact of their rules and declined to provide a new figure, that is not governance — that is a blank check written at the public’s expense.

Accountability, Not Abdication

The solution is not to abandon environmental goals. It is to demand that the people making trillion-dollar decisions about everyday life be held to the same standard of accountability we demand from elected officials.

CARB’s May 28 vote should be delayed until the agency produces a credible, independent economic analysis of the cost impact — not estimates they later disavow. The state legislature should be required to formally approve any regulatory change that materially raises fuel costs. And Californians should have the right to know exactly who is making these decisions and why.

An unelected board that can add a dollar to your gas bill without a public vote is not a feature of democracy. It is a gap in it.

Key Takeaway

CARB is scheduled to vote May 28, 2026, on rules that analysts warn could add up to $1 per gallon to California gas prices by 2030 — on top of prices already $1.66 above the national average. With two major refineries already closed, no transparent cost analysis from the agency, and bipartisan concern mounting in Sacramento, this is one of the most consequential and underreported regulatory votes in the state’s recent history.

Stay Informed. Speak Up. Share This Story.

California’s gas prices don’t rise by accident. They rise by policy — policy made by appointed boards in long meetings that most people never watch. The best tool citizens have is awareness.

Share this article with someone who drives to work every day. Contact your state Assembly member and senator before May 28. Attend or watch a CARB public meeting. And support independent journalism that covers the stories that directly affect your household budget.

Democracy works when citizens are informed and engaged. This is one of those moments.